Plan Your Trip

Best Time to Visit Cabo: Warm Water or Whales, Pick One

By Cabo Wander

The best time to visit Cabo is November, which surprises people who were expecting me to say winter. To be exact, I mean the two weeks or so between the end of the big October fishing tournaments and Thanksgiving. The ocean is still around 80°F, the days have cooled off to the high 80s, storm season is basically over, every restaurant is open again, and winter prices haven't kicked in yet.

It took me a few trips to notice this, and it explains the whole calendar. In Cabo, the price of a room and the temperature of the ocean move in opposite directions. March is the most expensive month of the year and has the coldest water, about 71°F. September is the cheapest month and has the warmest, about 85°F. So every "best time to visit" answer is a choice about which of those two you care about more.

The second catch surprises people. You can't get the best whales and the best swimming on the same trip. The whales peak in February, and the ocean is comfortable from July to early December. November is where the most good things overlap, which is why I keep ending up there.

Winter is still a great trip, and it delivers what it promises, which is sunshine every single day and whales. I just want you to know what you're trading for it before you book. So let's go through the year.

The Numbers, Month by Month

I know some of you came for the chart, so here it is before we get into the months.

These are long-run averages for Cabo San Lucas. San José del Cabo runs a degree or two hotter in every month and gets more rain. The ocean number is the average at the surface, so a sheltered cove can feel a little warmer than that and a dive at 50 feet in spring can feel a LOT colder.

June's ocean is colder than December's, which nobody expects, because June looks like summer and December looks like winter. And it rains on about 14 days a year in total. About three quarters of the year's rain falls in August and September, on fewer than eight days.

January and February: Whales, Sunshine and a Cold Ocean

If whales are the reason you're coming, this is your window, and February is the month I'd pick.

The days are around 80°F with basically no rain, and humpbacks are everywhere. I've seen them from the boat on nearly every winter trip, and from hotel balconies on the Pacific side without paying anybody. The licensed season runs from mid-December to the end of April, and most operators wrap up around mid-April. The dependable stretch is shorter than that, roughly Christmas to mid-March, and the best of it is late January through February, when there are the most whales and the most jumping and tail slapping. I go through boats and operators in my post on whale watching in Cabo.

One thing to clear up, because a lot of tour pages say "humpbacks and gray whales". From a boat in Cabo, you're going to see humpbacks. The gray whale experience, where mothers bring their calves right up to the boat, happens in the lagoons at Magdalena Bay, about five hours' drive north. It's sold from Cabo as a very long day or an overnight, roughly January to March.

The water, though, is 71 or 72°F, the coldest of the year, and it stays that way through April. You can swim in it. Most people I travel with get in, yelp, and get out, and a few never go past their ankles. If you're picturing the Caribbean, this isn't that. Evenings are cool too, in the high 50s to low 60s, and I pack a sweatshirt for dinner every winter trip now because I've been the person shivering in a sundress.

So winter in Cabo is mostly a pool vacation with a great view, and where you book matters. The Pacific side gets windy in late winter and spring, which makes the pool chilly as well. If you get cold easily, look at the bay side, and my area-by-area rundown in where to stay in Cabo will help you tell which is which.

Winter is also whale shark season out of La Paz. The window runs from late fall to spring, late winter has been the best of it lately, and swims get paused when too few sharks are around, so I wouldn't call any month a sure thing. Just know that La Paz runs colder than Cabo in winter, in the high 60s, and it's about a five-hour round trip in the car before you get on a boat. The details are in my La Paz day trip post.

Cruise ships are in the bay at Cabo San Lucas most days this time of year, and Presidents' Day weekend bumps prices. The week right after New Year's is a little quieter and cheaper than the rest of the season.

So come now for whales and guaranteed sun, and plan on the pool.

March and Easter: Spring Break and the Highest Prices

March is the month I'd talk you out of, unless school dates give you no choice.

To its credit, the days warm up to the low 80s, it almost never rains, and the whales are still around, now with calves. Around March 19, San José throws its patron saint fiestas in Plaza Mijares, with free concerts and a fairground, and that's a fun reason to spend an evening over there.

The problem is that March has the highest room rates of the year, the fullest hotels, and the same 71°F ocean as February. You're paying the most to swim in the coldest water Cabo gets. If the ocean matters to you at all, November costs less and the water is nine degrees warmer.

Then there's spring break. It runs for about five weeks starting in early March, and the second through fourth weeks are the peak. It's concentrated on Médano Beach and the bar strip in Cabo San Lucas, and it's loud. The good news is that it really is just that one town. San José and the Corridor barely notice it, which is one more thing to weigh if you're still deciding on Cabo San Lucas vs San José del Cabo.

What people miss is that Mexican Holy Week and Easter week come right behind spring break, and it's the biggest domestic travel week of the year. The dates move between March and April, and some years it lands right on top of the college crowd. I've met people who carefully booked around US spring break and flew straight into it. For what it's worth, I like this crowd a lot more. The public beaches fill up with local families and coolers, and it's a happy scene. It's just very, very full.

After Easter, things calm down fast. Crowds and prices both drop, and April averages zero days of rain. Most whale tours wrap up in mid-April, and by then the whales are thinning out. A lot of operators offer a "see a whale or go again free" guarantee right to the end, which sounds great until you realize that in mid-April it can mean two boat rides and no whale.

Bottom line: if you have to come in March with kids, you'll be fine at the east end of Médano, on a Corridor cove or in San José. The pool is going to be the vacation.

Late April Through June: Dry, Quiet and Cheaper

This is my runner-up, and it's what I recommend to people who hate crowds and don't mind a cool ocean.

May and June are about as dry as a place can be. It's around 90°F during the day with cool nights in May, the hotels are quiet, there are far fewer cruise ships, and rooms run about a quarter less than they do in March. The storm risk is close to nothing. Hurricane season officially opens in mid-May, and for Cabo that date means very little. A storm in June is rare.

What I wish were different is the water. It only gets up to about 74°F, and June is no warmer than May. June can go either way, too. I've had pleasant June water and I've had cold June water, and you won't know which until you're in it.

The water is also at its murkiest. Late spring and early summer bring plankton, and visibility in June drops to around 30 or 40 feet, compared with 60 to 100 in the fall. So perfect weather doesn't mean a great snorkel trip, and if that's the plan, read my post on snorkeling in Cabo before you pick dates.

The plankton does bring one thing worth knowing about. Mobula rays gather in the Sea of Cortez from about mid-April to July, with the peak in late May and June. The big show is northeast of Cabo, around La Ventana and Los Barriles, so think of it as a trip out of town.

The whales are gone by now. The Pacific side is still breezy through June. Memorial Day weekend is the one busy blip, and families start showing up in June when school lets out. If you want the cheapest month that's also a safe bet on weather, it's June.

July and August: Hot Days, Warm Water

Summer is for people who came for the ocean and can handle real heat.

The water finally warms up, to about 78°F in July and 83°F in August, and you can stay in as long as you like. Fishing is close to its best. Rooms are cheaper than winter, and golf drops by about a third.

It's cheaper for a reason, though. Highs are in the mid 90s, nights stay in the 70s, and from July to early October it's humid. Cabo has a dry-heat reputation, and for most of the year it's earned. Summer is the exception. It's fine next to a pool or in the ocean, and it's pretty miserable for golf, or for walking around San José, any time between 11am and 5pm. By August even the pool is warm, which is a funny thing to discover about the place you went to cool off.

July is also busier than you'd think. It's Mexican summer vacation, and the hotels stay pretty full, so don't expect a ghost town. That comes later.

August is when things start to shift. It's the hottest month, the first real rain shows up (usually the edge of a passing storm, on about four days), and from the middle of the month the storm odds are real. Some independent restaurants start closing for their break. On the plus side, I've practically had the pool to myself in late August, and the water gets clearer by the week.

Summer swells from the south can close even the good swimming coves for a day or two, so stay flexible about which beach you're headed to. I keep track of which ones hold up best in the best swimmable beaches in Cabo.

If you're coming with kids on summer break, go in June or early July. I'd skip late August.

September and Early October: The Real Hurricane Season

September has the cheapest rooms, the warmest ocean and the emptiest beaches of the year. It's also the month I'd steer most people away from.

Officially, hurricane season runs from mid-May to the end of November. In practice, the storms that reach Cabo show up between the last days of August and the third week of October, and September has more of them than all the other months put together. The first half of October is still part of it.

How Likely Is a Storm to Wreck Your Trip?

Less likely than the headlines suggest, and more likely than the brochures admit.

Going back seventeen seasons, a storm has closed the airport at least five times. Every one of those was between the end of August and late October, and it was usually closed for about a day. The exception was Hurricane Odile in September 2014, a direct hit that wrecked the airport and stranded about 30,000 visitors, and it was weeks before flights were back to normal. Over that same stretch, a hurricane has come ashore at or right next to the resorts about one year in four. What that means for a booking, and what insurance does and doesn't cover, is in my post on Cabo hurricane season.

What happens much more often is quieter and more annoying. A storm passes way out at sea and never comes near Cabo, and the port captain still closes the harbor to small boats because of the swell. That cancels the Arch, the snorkel cruises, the fishing and the water taxis all at once. The swimming beaches get black flags, and those can stay up for days after the storm is gone. I've lost boat days to storms I never saw a cloud from.

So if you come in September, build a trip that doesn't hang on boats. There are plenty of things to do in Cabo on dry land, and I'd leave the boat days unbooked until I could see the forecast.

What's Closed

Cabo doesn't shut down in September, whatever you've heard. But a good number of independent kitchens take their vacation then. The Office on the Beach and its sister restaurant Edith's close for a stretch every September, and I've been the person standing in front of a locked favorite, so now I check before I walk over. The farm restaurants outside San José tend to take a break around the same time. Resort restaurants stay open, and the town isn't fully back until about the middle of October.

The rain is worth understanding too. It doesn't drizzle every afternoon here. September's rain comes on about four days, in one or two big dumps, usually from the edge of a tropical system. When that happens the dry riverbeds, called arroyos, turn into rivers across the roads. Please don't drive through one that's running. That's how people get killed in storms here, far more than wind, and I talk about it more in is Cabo safe.

If You Go Anyway

I know people who come every September and love it. Nobody's fighting over lounge chairs, the service is better because the staff aren't slammed, and when nothing is brewing, the weather is hot sunshine and the diving is excellent. They also all buy insurance. Here's what I'd do:

• Buy travel insurance when you book. Once a storm has a name, no new policy will cover it.
• Know what it covers. A standard policy pays for things like a canceled flight or a hotel you can't stay in. It doesn't pay because the forecast looks bad or the boats aren't running.
• Read your hotel's storm policy. A few of the big resorts publish one. They pay in credit and rebooking, and only once there's a formal storm watch or warning. A port closure that cancels your boat trips doesn't trigger anything.
• Book a rate you can change. Skip the nonrefundable deal this one time.
• Book tours directly. Good operators refund or reschedule when the port closes. Resellers are slower about it.

Bottom line: September is a gamble with a discount. If your dates are flexible and the trip is about a pool and a cheap room, it can be great. If it's your one big vacation of the year, I'd pick another month.

Late October: The Fishing Tournaments

October is really two months, and the second half is so much better than the first.

Around the middle of the month the weather breaks, the humidity backs off and the town fills up again. The ocean is still 84°F and the water is as clear as it gets all year. If you want warm water at a good price, the last ten days of October are a smart pick.

Before you book it, know that storm season isn't quite done. You'll hear that it ends in mid-October, and then in 2023 a hurricane came ashore near Cabo San Lucas on October 21. I treat the third week of October as the real end, and I'd still buy the insurance.

It's also tournament season in Cabo San Lucas. The big marlin tournaments run from about the second week of October through the fourth, with around 200 boats and millions of dollars in prize money. The hotels and condos within walking distance of the marina book up first, and so do the good charter boats and crews. If you want to fish that week, book months ahead, and my post on sport fishing in Cabo covers how. The east end of Médano, the Corridor and San José don't really feel it.

During tournament week the boats have to be back inside the harbor by 9pm, and the weigh-ins start in the afternoon in front of the Puerto Paraíso mall. Stand on the boardwalk around dusk and watch the fleet race the deadline. It's one of my favorite evenings of the year down there.

November: The Month I'd Pick

November is the one month where almost everything is good at the same time.

The days are around 87°F, the nights drop to the mid 60s, and the ocean is about 80°F, which for me is the perfect swimming temperature. It rains on maybe one day. After the first week, the storm risk is close to nothing. The restaurants that closed for September are all back, and the San José Art Walk starts up again on the first Thursday of the month.

It's also the best time of year to be underwater. Visibility is at its peak from September through November, and October and November are the months I'd save for a Cabo Pulmo day trip.

If you can be there on November 1 and 2, Day of the Dead is worth an evening, either up in Todos Santos or at Plaza Amelia Wilkes in Cabo San Lucas.

The first catch is that there are no whales yet. Fishing boats spot a few early humpbacks toward the end of the month, but that's luck, and no tours are running. Cruise ships come back in force, about twice as many as in September, so check the ship schedule before you plan a day around the San Lucas marina. And Thanksgiving week is the first big peak of the season, with full hotels and high-season prices.

So the window I aim for is the second and third weeks of November, after the tournaments and before Thanksgiving. That said, if you're tied to school vacations, Thanksgiving week is the best of the fixed weeks to come. You get an 80°F ocean and the storms are done, which is more than Christmas or spring break can offer.

December: Two Different Trips

Early December is a bargain, and late December is the most expensive week of the year. Which one you get depends entirely on your dates.

The first two and a half weeks are the stretch I think people overlook. It's quiet, the prices are still well under winter, the days are around 81°F, and the ocean is in the mid 70s. That's high-season weather at pre-Christmas prices. The one thing I'd tell you is not to come early in the month "for the whales". Tours start on the 15th, and the sightings get steadier every day after that.

From about the 20th through January 2, it's a different place. This is the fullest Cabo gets, and the rooms at the top end cost the most they will all year. There are fireworks over Médano on New Year's Eve, the whales are just getting started, and the water is about 75°F. It's a lovely week to be there if the price doesn't bother you. If it does, come two weeks earlier.

The airport gets busy over Christmas week as well, and I've got tips for landing on a peak day in my Cabo airport guide.

What It Costs by Season

I'm not going to quote you monthly rates, because they change every year and they'd be wrong by the time you book. What stays the same is the order. So here's how the year stacks up, using a room that costs US$400 a night in March as the example:

• March, and Christmas through New Year's: the top of the market. That's your US$400, and more over the holidays.
• February and April: just a little under March.
• Thanksgiving week: priced like high season.
• June and July: about a quarter less, so around US$300.
• August: about a third less.
• Late August through September: the cheapest weeks of the year, around US$270. March runs roughly half as much again.
• The first two weeks of June and the first two weeks of December: the next cheapest after that.

The discount isn't the same at every hotel. At mid-priced places it's big, around 40% off in the low season. At the very top it's thin, because the fanciest resorts don't need to drop their rates much to fill up. Summer golf is about a third cheaper too.

One thing to budget for in storm season is the insurance, which takes a little off the savings. And whatever month you pick, tax and fees get added to every rate you see. I've got the full budget in how much Cabo costs.

For me, September isn't worth the savings. June gets you most of the discount with almost none of the risk.

The Traps

These are the mistakes I see most, and a couple of them I've made myself.

• Booking March for the beach. You pay the year's highest rates for its coldest water. Go in November if you want to swim.
• Booking September on a nonrefundable rate with boat trips prepaid. In an ordinary week you lose two or three boat days. In a bad one you lose all of it. Book flexible and insure early.
• Assuming a storm that missed didn't affect anything. The port can close and the beaches can be flagged for days because of a storm far offshore.
• Skipping June and July because "hurricane season is June to November". Those two months are dry and quiet. The trouble is late August to late October.
• Trusting that the season ends in mid-October. Give it until the last week of the month.
• Coming for whales in early December or late April. There are no tours before December 15, and by late April it's stragglers.
• Planning an October trip around whale sharks. The La Paz season opens in the fall on paper, but the actual opening depends on how many sharks have been counted in the bay, and it moves. Check before you build a trip around it.
• Expecting great snorkeling in May and June. The weather is perfect and the water is at its cloudiest.
• Expecting warm water in June. It's about the same as May.
• Planning a Thursday in San José for the Art Walk in summer. It's off from July through October.
• Booking a marina hotel or a fishing charter at the last minute for late October. The tournaments have them.
• Picking the Pacific side for a pool vacation in February to April. It's windy over there. In the same way, winter north winds make the East Cape and Cabo Pulmo choppy in the afternoons and can cancel boats.
• Packing only for heat in winter. Bring one warm layer for the evenings.
• Booking golf or a walking day at 2pm in August. Go at sunrise.

The Verdict

The best time to visit Cabo is November, in the two weeks before Thanksgiving. The water is warm, the weather is easy, everything is open and it costs less than winter. You give up the whales and you share the marina with cruise ships on some days, and I think that's a fair trade.

Here's what I'd pick for you if you're coming for something specific:

• Whales: the last week of January to the first week of March. February if you can only pick one month.
• Swimming and snorkeling: late October to early December, for water that's warm and clear at once. July and August work if you're okay with the heat.
• Diving and Cabo Pulmo: October and November.
• Whale sharks in La Paz: late fall to spring, best in late winter, never guaranteed.
• Fishing: October into early November for the biggest marlin and the tournament buzz, booked months ahead. Something is biting all year, so there's no bad month.
• The lowest price: June if you want it safe, September if you want it cheapest and you're insured.
• No crowds: May, June, September or the first half of December. In high season, stay in San José or on the Corridor.
• Families on school vacations: Thanksgiving week first, then June or early July. Spring break works if you stay away from the marina end of Médano and plan on the pool.
• A San José trip built around dinners: November to May, and make sure it includes a Thursday.
• Golfers and anyone who wilts in the heat: December to April, with November and May as good backups.

I'd only go in March for the whales, and I'd go in February for those. As for September, I have friends who swear by it... I'd rather pay a little more and know the boats are running.

Once you have dates, see my 7-day Cabo itinerary, my 3-day Cabo itinerary, the best Cabo honeymoon resorts and the Cabo first-timer mistakes I'd avoid.

The short version is to go the second or third week of November. If you want whales, go in February and plan on the pool. If you want cheap and safe, go in June. Skip March unless the kids' school picks it for you, and only do September with insurance and no boat plans.

Quick Answers

What is the best month to visit Cabo? November for most people, especially the second and third weeks. May and June if you want it quiet, dry and cheaper and don't mind a cool ocean, and late January to early March if you're coming for whales.

When is hurricane season in Cabo, really? Officially mid-May to the end of November. The storms that actually reach Cabo come between the last days of August and the third week of October, and September is far ahead of every other month.

When can you see whales in Cabo? The licensed season runs from mid-December to the end of April, and most operators stop around mid-April. The humpbacks are dependable from about Christmas to late March, and the peak is late January through February.

Is the water warm enough to swim? From July to early December, yes, for almost anyone, at 78 to 85°F. From January to June it's 71 to 74°F, which is swimmable but chilly, and it's coldest from February to April.

Does Cabo get sargassum? No. Sargassum is an Atlantic and Caribbean problem, and Cabo is on the Pacific and the Sea of Cortez. The brown water you might see after a big storm is runoff from the arroyos, and it clears in a few days.